Todd Harrison writes for Minyanville Ten Themes for 2009. Here’s a sample…
When asked about my year-end price target on the S&P, my answer is constant. Tell me what the dollar will do and I’ll offer an educated guess on stocks. Indeed, since the beginning of 2002, our financial machination has operated through the lens of “dollar devaluation vs. asset class deflation.”
My sense for 2009 is that—all else being equal—we’ll see wild movements and a wide range, perhaps with S&P 600 as a nadir and one (if not two) 20% bear market rallies filled with false hope and empty promises.
The January 20th transfer of power is an important inflection point, for if we can collectively navigate past that date without geopolitical conflict, stocks have room to run into March or April, when the bloom begins to fade on the new administration’s rose.
Kevin Depew also writes for Minyanville Five Themes You Need to Know for 2009. Again, a sample…
2. Putting the "De-" In Deflation
As declining risk appetites manifest in nearly everything in 2009, from our collective views on financial risk to our tastes in culture, music, film and fashion, we will see a focus on declines, destruction and devaluation. Perhaps nowhere will this be more obvious than in the disintegration of large-scale social networks into smaller, more focused and intimate groups.
While peak social mood helped propel the movement toward increasingly open social networking platforms and large scale interactions, the rush to disassociate from the crowd will inevitably manifest as a reduction in broad network exposure and a preference for close-knit, tighter communities. Beneficiaries of this movement will be families, small groups and, to an extent, neighborhoods.
Michael “Mish” Shedlock writes Reflections on 2008, Themes for 2009. Of course, a sample…
Looking ahead in 2009 here are some things I see as likely.
Obama will pass a stimulus package of $850+- billion but $300 billion will be "tax relief" amounting to $19 a week at most. $19 a week per household is not going to stimulate much of anything but it will add to the budget deficit. People will use that money to pay down bills, which is exactly what they should be doing with it.
The first 3-5 months are going to be extremely weak on the jobs front with 400,000 or more jobs lost each month. Obama is going to need to create 2-3 million jobs just to counteract job losses in first half of the year. There is no way he is going to create jobs that fast given implosions in state budgets and retailers.
In 2009 consumers will continue to retrench, housing will continue to decline, and as many as 100 small or regional banks will implode over falling commercial real estate prices. The Fed may arrange shotgun marriages with these banks instead of letting them go under.
I am sticking with a thesis that says we are currently in a sucker rally in the stock market that will end soon after inauguration or moments after Obama signs a new stimulus package. My target is 600 on the S&P but 450 is not out of the question. However, it is better to think of this in ranges and that range would roughly be 450-700.
Posts
|