Wednesday, May 6, 2009

East Bay Housing Review May 2009

Here is a chart showing housing inventory levels, sales, and REO inventory levels. You can clearly see that the number of REOs for sale begins to drop off in January of 2009….This is the result of foreclosure moratoria that began in the fall.Big Charts Counties May 2009

5/1/2009 MLS Active MLS Sold Last Month Months Inventory
Alameda County 3468 998 3.47
Contra Costa County 3869 1292 2.99
Alamo 137 7 19.57
Antioch 322 222 1.45
Berkeley 91 49 1.86
Blackhawk 80 2 40.00
Brentwood 214 106 2.02
Castro Valley 138 36 3.83
Clayton 52 12 4.33
Concord 306 139 2.20
Danville 240 26 9.23
Diablo 19 0 0
Discovery Bay 92 24 3.83
Dublin 112 36 3.11
El Cerrito 30 17 1.76
El Sobrante 35 7 5.00
Emeryville 52 7 7.43
Fremont 462 109 4.24
Hayward 431 149 2.89
Hercules 88 28 3.14
Lafayette 123 12 10.25
Livermore 265 72 3.68
Martinez 151 32 4.72
Moraga 60 7 8.57
Newark 89 35 2.54
Oakland 970 275 3.53
Oakley 166 57 2.91
Orinda 86 10 8.60
Piedmont 34 6 5.67
Pinole 28 16 1.75
Pittsburg 215 113 1.90
Pleasant Hill 87 14 6.21
Pleasanton 271 37 7.32
Richmond 418 172 2.43
Rodeo 23 12 1.92
Rossmoor 154 27 5.70
San Leandro 175 67 2.61
San Pablo 115 53 2.17
San Ramon 267 68 3.93
Union City 169 49 3.45
Walnut Creek 254 53 4.79

Big Charts High End May 2009 In high-end communities, the spread between the number of homes for sale and the number that are actually selling continues to widen. The more distorted this number becomes, the faster home values will drop.

And, though it may seem like the REO numbers are small, the trend is that they are growing. Six months from now, I would expect to see 100 or more REOs for sale in these areas.

Big Charts Low End May 2009 In more-affordable Bay Area communities, prices have fallen 50-60% or more and the market has been dominated by foreclosures. Today, ratio between what is for sale and what is selling is downright bullish. These areas have once-again become “Seller’s Markets” with most decent listings receiving multiple offers. Prices are still falling, but much more slowly than before.

The challenge lies in the trend-line of REO property for sale. The drop-off that began in January was artificially-induced by the government. How high will those red bars get over the next 6 months, now that the foreclosure machines have been turned back on?