Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Required Reading: Tuesday, June 30th 2009

Consumer confidence falls in June – The Associated Press

GM plans to quit Nummi plant – The San Francisco Chronicle

Bruce Kern, executive director of the East Bay Economic Development Alliance, said that in addition to its direct employees, Nummi indirectly supports 35,000 jobs with a network of transportation, warehousing and parts suppliers.

"It may take some time before the future of Nummi is determined," said Lance Tomasu, a spokesman for the Fremont management team that runs the factory and answers to both GM and Toyota.

The Suspicious Science Behind Man-Made Global Warming – Minyanville, James Anderson

If your neighbor told you he were getting a tent for his daughter’s wedding reception 2 weeks from now, and you told him not to bother, because a computer model predicted sunny weather, do you think he'd take you seriously?

Pushing on a string – MarketWatch

UK First Quarter GDP Drops 2.4%, Most Since 1958; US GDP Fell 5.5% – Mish

Chicken Farmers Have Hearts Plucked Out – Mish

Next Segment Of The Housing Market To Crash: $1+ Million McMansions – Clusterstock, Henry Blodget

Even after a 30% fall from the peak, house prices are still too high.  Meanwhile, millions of homeowners are losing their jobs, consumers are still saddled with truckloads of debt, banks are still tightening credit, foreclosures and delinquencies are still soaring, mortgage-mods are a failure, there are still too many houses on the market, wages are declining, taxes are likely to go up, and the economy is likely to struggle for years.

In short, it's likely that house prices will now crash below fair value and remain below it for years.  So McMansion owners sniffing at current prices and planning to "wait until the market comes back" will likely be waiting a lot longer than they think.

House Prices: The Long Tail – Calculated Risk

Freddie Mac June Investor Presentation – Calculated Risk